Bracketology Update 1/24/2020

1	Kansas	Baylor	Set Hall	San Diego St.
2	Gonzaga	West Virginia	Dayton	Duke
3	Butler	Florida St.	Louisville	Michigan St.
4	Oregon	Villanova	Maryland	Iowa
5	Penn St.	Creighton	Auburn	Colorado
6	Wisconsin	LSU	Marquette	Ohio St.
7	Indiana	Houston	Kentucky	Michigan
8	Rutgers	Wichita St.	Stanford	BYU
9	USC	Oklahoma	Illinois	Arizona
10	Arkansas	Minnesota	Florida	Virginia Tech
11	Saint Mary’s	Texas Tech	N.C. State/Memphis	Tennessee/VCU
12	East Tennessee St.	Northern Iowa	Liberty	Akron
13	Yale	Stephen F. Austin	North Texas	Vermont
14	Colgate	Oral Roberts	New Mexico St.	Georgia St.
15	Montana	Wright St.	Winthrop	Murray St.
16	Charleston	St. Francis PA	Monmouth/UC Irvine	Prairie View A&M/Norfolk St.

Number 1 Seeds: Kansas, Baylor, San Diego St. Seton Hall
Lurking: Gonzaga, West Virginia, Duke

Last 4 Byes: Florida, Virginia Tech, Saint Mary’s, Texas Tech
Last 4 In: N.C. State, Memphis, Tennessee, VCU
First 4 Out: Georgetown, Richmond, Xavier, DePaul
Next 4 Out: Purdue, Saint Louis, Arizona St., Texas

Multi Bid Conferences:
B1G (11)
SEC (6)
BE (5)
B12 (5)
P12 (5)
ACC (5)
AAC (3)
WCC (3)
A10 (2)

Bracket Thoughts:
I continue to flip flop the teams on the top line as the NET and efficiency metrics update each day. As I analyze potential scenarios, I like the way it works out today. Kansas has the strongest resume, and Baylor has some separation at #2. I’ll have to revisit if Baylor can sweep KU to win the B12.

The more I look at it, the more mitigating factors I see to put Seton Hall on the top line. There is no shame in the early season losses to Michigan St. and Oregon. Their only 2 other losses came without Sandro Mamukelashvili and at least a without Player of the Year candidate Myles Powell (left at half at Iowa St., DNP at Rutgers). They’ve now reeled off 9 in a row, and holding 6 quad 1 wins is hard to ignore.

The time has finally come. I’ve moved San Diego St. ahead of Gonzaga. They just have a stronger list of accomplishments at every phase:
NET Ranking: SDSU – 1, Zags – 4
Quad 1: SDSU – 4-0; Zags – 4-1
Quad 2: SDSU – 2-0; Zags – 0-0
SOS/NCSOS: SDSU 179/109; Zags 232/282

I give San Diego St. the 1 seed out West, but Gonzaga follows them with the 2 and get to stay close to home in the West Region. I personally think it would be fitting to let these two teams play in the Regional Final for a berth to the Final Four and put these arguments to bed with a head to head result.

Is there any question that the B1G is the best conference this year? 12 teams in the top 46 of the NET (although the top team, Michigan St. is only #10). This conference is stacked and will provide opportunities nearly every night for conference members to improve their profiles. However, we have also seen that they’re going to beat each other up. Michigan and Ohio St., both top 5 teams at one point, are a combined 4-11 in conference. The sheer volume of losses (and the fact that they will play a 20 game schedule) mean the B1G is unlikely to get a great seed, so we’ll likely see the B1G teams crammed in between the 3-9 lines (with the last 1 or two maybe getting double digit seeds).