Bubble Watch Weekend Recap 1/28/20

Big Ten
Locks: Michigan St., Maryland, Iowa, Penn St., Wisconsin, Rutgers, Illinois
Should be in: Ohio St., Michigan
Work to do: Indiana, Minnesota, Purdue

Indiana lost a heartbreaker to Maryland in a 66-67 decision. A solid showing for the Hoosiers, but a missed opportunity.
Minnesota never really found itself in a position to challenge Michigan St., and falls to 3-8 vs quad 1.
Ohio St. took care of Northwestern, but didn’t add much to its profile with only a quad 3 win.

Weekend games:
Indiana 66 vs Maryland 67 (Q1B opportunity)
Minnesota 52 vs Michigan St. 70 (Q1A opportunity)
Ohio St. 71 at Northwestern 59 (Q3)
Purdue idle

Big East
Locks: Seton Hall, Butler, Villanova, Creighton
Should be in: Marquette
Work to do: Georgetown, Xavier, DePaul, St. John’s Providence

Providence stayed close while hosting Villanova, but couldn’t pull off the upset. At 10-11 overall, they’ll need to add more wins to justify a bid.
St. John’s won at DePaul 79-66, adding a Q1 win to the resume and moving them up the bubble list. Still out in my book, but moving closer. DePaul on the otherhand is sliding further out. 1-6 in league play isn’t an official committee metric, but there isn’t a lot of precedence to include teams more than 2 games below .500 in league play. I’m going to remove DePaul from consideration until they can get back within that margin.
Xavier couldn’t take advantage of a road opportunity against Creighton. No shame in that, but to the victor go the spoils.

Weekend games:
Marquette idle
Georgetown idle
Xavier 66 at Creighton 77 (Q1A opportunity)
DePaul 66 vs St. John’s 79 (Q3)
St. John’s 79 at DePaul 66 (Q1B opportunity)
Providence 60 vs Villanova 64 (Q1A opportunity)

ACC
Locks: Duke, Louisville, Florida St.
Work to do: Virginia Tech, N.C. State, Notre Dame, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Virginia, Clemson

Virginia Tech adds a bad loss at Boston College, which has dropped them into the first four out.
N.C. State joined Virginia Tech, although they find themselves further down the bubble list.
Notre Dame fell just short of a signature victory at Florida St. That would have been a massive win for them. Unfortunately, they’ll have to rely on playing at Duke and the return visit from Florida St. as their remaining opportunities for a marquee win to help solidify the profile.
Syracuse won vs Pittsburgh in a battle of bubble teams. It’s not the best win, but it still falls into quad 2, and having a head to head victory against competition for a bid is always a nice trump card to have.
Pittsburgh sees the other side of the coin, as they took the loss from fellow bubble team Syracuse. Pittsburgh isn’t out of contention, yet, but their sliding down the list of potential at large teams.
Virginia added a road win to its resume, which is a nice boost for a team without a win over a surefire tournament team (is Arizona St. their best win, or at Syracuse?). They still have four cracks at the top 3 teams in the ACC, so they can strengthen their case down the stretch, but there isn’t a lot of meat on the bone here.
Clemson falls to only 10-9 on the year, so we’re going to pull them out of consideration until they get a few more wins to be safely over .500.

Weekend Games:
Virginia Tech 56 at Boston College 61 (Q3)
N.C. State 58 at Georgia Tech 64 (Q2A opportunity)
Notre Dame 84 at Florida St. 85 (Q1A opportunity)
Syracuse 69 vs Pittsburgh 61 (Q2B opportunity)
Pittsburgh 61 at Syracuse 69 (Q1B opportunity)
Virginia 65 at Wake Forest 63 (Q2B opportunity)
Clemson 62 at Louisville 80 (Q1A opportunity)

Big Twelve
Locks: Kansas, Baylor, West Virginia
Should be in: Oklahoma, Texas Tech
Work to do: Texas, TCU, Oklahoma St.

Oklahoma took advantage of its home date with Mississippi St. That gets them to 7 quad 1 and quad 2 wins, which is a respectable number, although only 2 are against quad 1.
Texas Tech is really lacking results. After clawing back against a talented Kentucky squad, they fell in extra time missing the chance to add a second quad 1 victory.
Texas nearly overcame a 10 point deficit at the half, but fell to LSU in the B12/SEC challenge. With only 2 wins against quads 1 and 2, they’ll need to find some quality wins (ideally away from home) to help their cause.
TCU has a solid record at first glance, but when you realize they are just 3-6 against quads 1 and 2, while going 9-0 against quads 3 and 4, you realize the record is more of a mirage than anything.
Oklahoma St. won at Texas A&M. This doesn’t help much, although it is better than absorbing a Q3 loss.

Weekend Games:
Oklahoma 63 vs Mississippi St. 62 (Q2A opportunity)
Texas Tech 74 vs Kentucky 76 (Q1B opportunity)
Texas 67 vs LSU 69 (Q1B opportunity)
TCU 67 at Arkansas 78 (Q1A opportunity)
Oklahoma St. 73 at Texas A&M 62 (Q3)

Southeastern Conference
Locks: Auburn, LSU, Kentucky
Should be in: Arkansas, Florida
Work to do: Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi St.

Arkansas was happy to host TCU who provided a solid quad 2 victory. With a top 20 NCSOS and 5 wins against quads 1 and 2, Arkansas is nearing lock status. A couple more wins and we should be there.
Florida couldn’t take advantage of a visit from AP #1 Baylor.  You don’t get many opportunities for a win that would carry that much strength into March, so Florida remains with only a single quad 1 victory.
Similarly, Tennessee couldn’t keep pace with Kansas in the Phog.  For a team right on the cut line, that was a game that would have been nice to have in their back pocket, but it just was not meant to be.
Alabama was able to beat a struggling, but scrappy, Kansas St. squad.  This is another “avoid bad losses” situation.  So kudos for that, but a home victory over a sub .500 nonconference foe isn’t going to earn you much respect.
Mississippi St. missed an opportunity to strengthen its bubble positioning as it fell to Oklahoma.  Having only 2 quality wins isn’t going to cut it, especially with 2 quad 3 losses to compensate for.

Weekend Games:
Arkansas 78 vs TCU 67 (Q2B opportunity)
Florida 61 vs Baylor 72 (Q1A opportunity)
Tennessee 68 at Kansas 74 (Q1A opportunity)
Alabama 77 vs Kansas St. 74 (Q3)
Mississippi St. 62 vs Oklahoma 63 (Neutral, Q1B opportunity)

Pacific Twelve
Locks: Oregon, Colorado
Should be in: Arizona, Stanford, USC
Work to do: Arizona St., Washington

Arizona got stunned in Tempe stoking questions about the inconsistency between the Wildcats’ NET ranking (10) and their results (1-4 vs quad 1).
Arizona St. on the other hand, gets a marquee victory to pin its hopes on, and moves into the last 4 in.
USC took care of Oregon St.  Adding a road victory in the process.  The Trojans are rewarded by moving up to the 7-seed line in the latest bracket.
Washington dropped another game to Colorado, and I’m ready to remove them from consideration for the time being.  Without Quade Green, they just don’t have the results to justify a spot in the tournament.
Stanford hurt its case for a bid dropping a road game to rival Cal.  This is a bad loss for one of the surprise teams this year, although the resume is still lacking some substance.  They’ll fall to a double digit seed in the latest update.

Weekend Games:
Arizona 65 at Arizona St. 66 (Q1B opportunity)
Arizona St. 66 vs Arizona 65 (Q1A opportunity)
USC 75 at Oregon St. 55 (Q2A opportunity)
Washington 62 at Colorado 76 (Q1A opportunity)
Stanford 50 at California 52 (Q3 opportunity)

Atlantic Ten
Locks: Dayton
Work to do: VCU, Richmond, Rhode Island, Saint Louis

The A10 is likely to see its bids fluctuate throughout the rest of the season. With 4 teams on my S-curve between positions 47 and 57, we’ll likely see movement in and out of the bracket every week.
The A10 bubble teams will likely either need to perform well against the other bubble teams or beat Dayton.

West Coast
Locks: Gonzaga
Work to do: BYU, Saint Mary’s

BYU and Saint Mary’s are probably safe, but the only way to lock up a bid is going to be to win against Gonzaga.

Weekend Games:
BYU 82 at San Francisco 83 (Q2A opportunity)
Saint Mary’s 73 at Loyola Marymount 62 (Q3)