Bracketology Update 2/3/2020

1	Baylor	Kansas	San Diego St.	Gonzaga
2	Butler	Seton Hall	Dayton	West Virginia
3	Duke	Maryland	Villanova	Louisville
4	Iowa	Michigan St.	Creighton	Oregon
5	Florida St.	Penn St.	LSU	Auburn
6	Marquette	Arizona	Colorado	Wisconsin
7	Illinois	Michigan	Ohio St.	Kentucky
8	Indiana	Arkansas	Houston	BYU
9	Rutgers	USC	Texas Tech	Wichita St.
10	Oklahoma	Florida	Saint Mary’s	Rhode Island
11	Georgetown	Xavier	Minnesota/VCU	Stanford/Purdue
12	Northern Iowa	Yale	East Tennessee St.	Stephen F. Austin
13	Liberty	Louisiana Tech	Vermont	Akron
14	Winthrop	New Mexico St.	Colgate	Little Rock
15	Wright St.	Northern Colorado	Murray St.	South Dakota St.
16	Hofstra	Monmouth	UC Irvine/Prairie View A&M	Sacred Heart/Norfolk St.

Number 1 Seeds: Baylor, Kansas, San Diego St., Gonzaga
Lurking: Butler, Seton Hall, Dayton

Last 4 Byes: Saint Mary’s, Rhode Island, Georgetown, Xavier
Last 4 In: Minnesota, VCU, Stanford, Purdue
First 4 Out: Texas, Arizona St., Memphis, Mississippi St.
Next 4 Out: Saint Louis, Virginia, Utah St., Alabama

Also considered: DePaul, Cincinnati, Syracuse, Richmond, St. John’s, Tennessee, Virginia Tech, N.C. State, Oklahoma St., UNC Greensboro, Notre Dame, Washington, Providence

Multi Bid Conferences:
B1G (12)
BE (7)
B12 (5)
SEC (5)
P12 (5)
ACC (3)
WCC (3)
A10 (3)
AAC (2)

Bracket Thoughts:
After having time to fully review resumes, I’ve made a few changes in the first few lines. I’m giving Baylor the nod over Kansas for #1 overall. While Kansas has more quality wins and the #1 SOS, Baylor isn’t far behind and has the head-to-head win at Kansas, which is the kicker for me. I’ve also moved Dayton solidly onto the 2 line after reviewing their profile. While they lack the volume of quality wins, they have only 2 losses, and they were both in overtime to tournament teams (Kansas and Colorado). If they win those games, this team is being looked at just like SDSU and Gonzaga. I finally tried to do a better job of incorporating the raw NET rankings, as reviewing what the committee has done in the past shows a strong correlation between NET rankings and seeding on the first few lines. I abandon this relationship as we head toward the cut-line, and look more at who you beat and where.

Look ahead:
While my bracket is created as of a point in time, I do enjoy looking at upcoming matchups and thinking about where teams are likely to end up. Here are a few teams that could make moves one way or the other into/out of the bracket.

Potential Risers:
Ohio St. – With a loaded Big Ten, the Buckeyes will have plenty of opportunities to rack up solid wins, and almost any loss will be against top tier teams. It’s a recipe for success the entire league gets to take advantage, and based on metrics, the Buckeyes are likely to go 6-4 to add solid wins to their profile.

Texas Tech – Even if we assume 2 losses at the end of the regular season to Kansas and Baylor; Texas Tech is likely to pile up some additional wins against Oklahoma, Iowa State, Oklahoma St., Texas, and TCU. While not great teams, they are mostly strong enough to be considered at least Q2 wins, especially on the road.

Stanford – Stanford only has 5 losses so far, so even if they lose to the top teams in the P12 (Arizona, Oregon, Colorado), they should still be able to rack up wins against the rest of the league to compile a nice record and respectable NET ranking by the end of the year.

Arizona St. – Arizona St. starts in worse position than Stanford, but has a path to compile several quality wins down the stretch. They’re on the outside looking in right now, but they’re in position to make a move.

Mississippi St. – It always helps to have the best player on the floor, and more often than not, the Bulldogs will with Reggie Perry. The back half of their schedule is favorable, and projects out to a 7-3 finish down the stretch, which should have them making up ground on other bubble teams. The biggest hurdle for Mississippi St. is that they only have 3 opportunities for solid wins left. If they take advantage, they’ll be in the field, but otherwise their three best wins are vs Arkansas, @ Florida, and vs Tennessee.

Potential Fallers:
Oklahoma – The Sooners have a BRUTAL close to the schedule, projected to be favored in only 2 more games. They’ll need to pull off some upsets to maintain their position in the field, but at least they can’t say the opportunity isn’t there.

Wisconsin – This one is cheating a bit. Wisconsin, while solidly in the field at the moment, will be without Kobe King for the remainder of the year. If they struggle down the stretch, the committee will take that into account and the Badgers likely won’t get the benefit of the doubt.