Bracketology Update 2/12/2020

Number 1 Seeds: Baylor, Duke, Gonzaga, San Diego St.
Lurking: Duke, Dayton, Maryland, Seton Hall

Last 4 Byes: Florida, Saint Mary’s, VCU, USC
Last 4 In: Wichita St., Stanford, Arkansas, Utah St.
First 4 Out: Georgetown, Virginia, Arizona St., Richmond
Next 4 Out: Cincinnati, Alabama, Mississippi St. N.C. State

Multi Bid Conferences:
B1G (12)
BE (6)
SEC (5)
P12 (5)
B12 (5)
ACC (3)
WCC (3)
A10 (3)
AAC (2)
MWC (2)

Bracket Thoughts:
I’ve taken several days before releasing a full update and breakdown, as I needed some time to adjust my ranking system to better match what the Selection Committee released last Saturday.

I’m holding Gonzaga over San Diego St. for the 1 seed in the West Region only because the committee showed that it was their initial decision during their mid-season reveal. I struggle to look at the metrics and see that, so there must be some subjective reasoning behind that decision.

I also don’t agree with the perceived strength of the top ACC teams, having had 2 teams (Duke, Louisville) on the 2 line and a third (Florida St.) as a 3. My guess is that as the ACC sorts itself out we’ll end up with a 2, 3, and 4; which will be more appropriate in my mind, given the lack of depth in the league.

On the flip side of the coin, I think Maryland and Seton Hall were under-seeded in the reveal, and that Penn St. is likely to shoot into the rankings despite not being listed or in the discussion for a 4 seed. Look for each of these teams to move up the list where appropriate, especially as we get further from the committee’s reveal.

I’ve also been spending some time pondering how to assign teams into pods/regions as I move down the seed list. It’s easy for the first 16 teams, as I can select the most favorable remaining pod first, and then slot them into the most favorable remaining region. However, for the automatic qualifiers, it becomes tricky. Do you slot a New England area team into an Albany pod in the West Region, or a Sacramento pod assigned to the East Region? I’ve landed on leaning toward the preferred pod and ignoring which regional site teams get assigned to, with the thought process that half the teams will never get to the regional site anyway.