Bracketology Update 2/18/2020

1	Baylor	Kansas	Gonzaga	San Diego St.
2	Duke	Dayton	Maryland	Seton Hall
3	Penn St.	Oregon	Creighton	Villanova
4	Florida St.	Louisville	West Virginia	Auburn
5	Colorado	Michigan St.	Kentucky	Arizona
6	Butler	Iowa	Ohio St.	Marquette
7	Michigan	Houston	LSU	BYU
8	Texas Tech	Illinois	Oklahoma	Wisconsin
9	Xavier	Rutgers	Florida	Arizona St.
10	Saint Mary’s	Georgetown	Purdue	Indiana
11	Wichita St.	Northern Iowa	Rhode Island	USC/Richmond
12	Arkansas/Virginia	East Tennessee St.	Liberty	Yale
13	Vermont	Stephen F. Austin	Akron	North Texas
14	New Mexico St.	Wright St.	South Dakota St.	Colgate
15	Little Rock	Winthrop	Montana	Hofstra
16	Murray St.	UC Irvine	St. Francis PA/Siena	Prairie View A&M/Norfolk St.

Number 1 Seeds: Baylor, Kansas, Gonzaga, San Diego St.
Lurking: Duke, Dayton, Maryland

Last 4 Byes: Purdue, Indiana, Wichita St., Rhode Island
Last 4 In: USC, Richmond, Arkansas, Virginia
First 4 Out: Utah St., Cincinnati, Alabama, Mississippi St.
Next 4 Out: Stanford, Providence, Tennessee, VCU
*Minnesota would be in if they were 2+ games above .500, but due to historical trends, they cannot be considered until that point.

Multi Bid Conferences:
B1G (11)
BE (7)
P12 (5)
SEC (5)
B12 (5)
ACC (4)
WCC (3)
A10 (3)
AAC (2)

Bracket Notes:
BYU was bumped to an 8 seed, as they have playing date restrictions that require specific pod/region combinations (St. Louis/Houston was the nearest combination that could accommodate). Texas Tech was the beneficiary moving from an 8 up to the 7 seed line.

I am leaving the top 6 teams from the Committee reveal until a team loses, so Maryland is currently capped at 7th overall until Dayton or Duke lose.

My top 7 have clear separation from the rest of the pack, and Seton Hall and Penn St. are my next two teams, with one being rewarded with a 2 Seed (West), and the other getting the favorable Albany/New York path as the 3 seed in the East.

I seem to be too low on Florida St. and Louisville, but I cannot justify placing them on the 2 or 3 seed lines over the following teams:
Oregon – very good top end wins (3 Q1A)
Creighton – strong NET (12), 7 Q1 wins
Villanova – 2 Q1A wins
vs
Florida St. – only 3 Q1 wins (H2H against Louisville)
Louisville – strong NET (9), but only 4 Q1 wins

The resumes appear to get very close in the backend of the 4 seed line, so we could see significant movement from teams 15-28 or so as more results come in.

My biggest personal surprises for teams currently left out of the tournament are as follows:
VCU – Surprising losses have dropped VCU to the point that they may need to win today (2/18) against Dayton to solidify their bid.
Cincinnati – This team looks like a tournament team, but they only have 2 wins against the at-large field (a 3rd against Vermont, but also a loss to Colgate). If they win everything except any remaining games against Houston, I think they likely sneak in, as they would add a win against Wichita St. along the way, and the cut line is likely to move down with bubble teams losing rather than shrink up with bid thieves (few fringe at large teams in 1 bid conferences this year).
Utah St. – A couple wins against the SEC (LSU and Florida) on neutral courts are almost the entire case for Utah St. Is that enough without beating San Diego St. in the MWC Tournament? This is one of the teams to keep an eye on if the committee wanted to “spread the wealth” of bids.