Bracketology Update 2/23/2020

1	Kansas	Baylor	Gonzaga	San Diego St.
2	Maryland	Duke	Dayton	Creighton
3	Seton Hall	Florida St.	Oregon	Villanova
4	Louisville	Kentucky	Penn St.	Michigan St.
5	West Virginia	Auburn	Colorado	Butler
6	Iowa	Michigan	Arizona	Ohio St.
7	Wisconsin	BYU	Illinois	Houston
8	Marquette	Texas Tech	Arizona St.	LSU
9	Indiana	Saint Mary’s	Florida	Wichita St.
10	Xavier	Virginia	Rutgers	Providence
11	USC	Oklahoma	Georgetown/Rhode Island	Stanford/Utah St.
12	Northern Iowa	East Tennessee St.	Liberty	Yale
13	Stephen F. Austin	Akron	Vermont	New Mexico St.
14	North Texas	Belmont	Colgate	South Dakota St.
15	Hofstra	Wright St.	Northern Colorado	Little Rock
16	UC Irvine	Winthrop	St. Francis PA/Prairie View A&M	Siena/Norfolk St.

Number 1 Seeds: Kansas, Baylor, Gonzaga, San Diego St.
Lurking: Maryland, Duke, Dayton

Last 4 Byes: Rutgers, Providence, USC, Oklahoma
Last 4 In: Georgetown, Rhode Island, Stanford, Utah St.
First 4 Out: Richmond, N.C. State, Purdue, Arkansas
Next 4 Out: Mississippi St., Alabama, Cincinnati, Memphis

Others considered: Minnesota, Texas, UNC Greensboro, Oklahoma St., South Carolina, Notre Dame, St. John’s, UCLA, VCU, Syracuse

Bracket Thoughts:
At this point, it feels like you can consider the first 8 seed lines as locked into the tournament. The 9 seed line is where the resumes felt like they really began dropping off and feeling more uncertain.

I have been lower on teams like Rutgers and Providence, but after comparing resumes, while they each have their negatives, it is hard to overlook the “wins against the field” for these teams. That also explains why teams like Oklahoma, Rhode Island, and Stanford may find themselves a bit lower here.

I think bubble teams may be able to breathe a little easier this year, as I don’t see many conferences that can legitimately create bid thieves to contract the bubble. The B1G and BE are deep enough that almost any team with a realistic shot of winning the auto bid has already secured a bid. The P12 and B12 have significant separation between the top and middle of the league. We’re really looking at the SEC or ACC (can one of the fringe bubble teams get hot?) Or do the A10 or AAC produce an unlikely champion? Most of the other conferences are true one bid leagues without much realistic hope for an at-large.