Bracketology Update 2/26/2020

1	Kansas	Baylor	Gonzaga	Dayton
2	San Diego St.	Maryland	Florida St.	Creighton
3	Villanova	Duke	Seton Hall	Oregon
4	Kentucky	Louisville	Michigan St.	Auburn
5	Penn St.	West Virginia	Michigan	Arizona
6	Colorado	Ohio St.	Iowa	BYU
7	Butler	Wisconsin	Illinois	LSU
8	Houston	Arizona St.	Marquette	Indiana
9	Saint Mary’s	Florida	Xavier	Texas Tech
10	Providence	Virginia	Rutgers	Wichita St.
11	Rhode Island	Oklahoma	Northern Iowa	East Tennessee St.
12	Utah St./Stanford	Georgetown/Cincinnati	Liberty	Yale
13	Stephen F. Austin	Vermont	North Texas	New Mexico St.
14	Colgate	Belmont	South Dakota St.	Northern Colorado
15	Wright St.	Bowling Green	Hofstra	Little Rock
16	UC Irvine	Winthrop	St. Francis PA/Prairie View A&M	Siena/North Carolina Central

Number 1 Seeds: Kanasas, Baylor, Gonzaga, Dayton
Lurking: San Diego St., Maryland

Last 4 Byes: Rutgers, Wichita St., Rhode Island, Oklahoma
Last 4 In: Utah St., Stanford, Georgetown, Cincinnati
First 4 Out: USC, Richmond, Texas, Mississippi St.
Next 4 Out: Arkansas, N.C. State, UCLA, Notre Dame

Also Considered: Purdue, Minnesota, Alabama, South Carolina, Memphis, UNC Greensboro

Bracket Breakdown:
Welcome to the 1-Line, Dayton. This has less to do with the actual results (San Diego St. did escape against Colorado St.), but more with how teams are looking. After rolling for a while, San Diego St. appears to have lost its edge following the clinching of the MWC Regular Season title. With stronger schedule metrics, and only 1 more loss (both in Q1A on neutral courts), Dayton is my choice for the 4th number 1 seed.

The news isn’t all bad for San Diego St. as their consolation prize is the #2 seed in the West Region and a path to stay close to home until the Final Four. With recent losses by several contenders, the remaining slots on the 2 line could fall many different ways. I currently like Florida St., Maryland, and Creighton to round out that line, which pushes both Duke and Villanova down to #3 seeds (either could easily be considered a 2 based on their accomplishments).

Toward the bottom of the bracket, my stance is to punish teams that haven’t performed away from home or against teams projected to make the tournament. I’ve been a bit lower on Texas Tech, Rutgers, Wichita St., Rhode Island, Oklahoma, Stanford, and Georgetown, while giving some credit to Cincinnati (3 wins against the field) for the last bid despite some questionable losses.