Bracketology Update 3/1/2020

1	Kansas	Baylor	Gonzaga	Dayton
2	San Diego St.	Creighton	Seton Hall	Maryland
3	Florida St.	Villanova	Kentucky	Duke
4	Oregon	Michigan St.	Louisville	Penn St.
5	Ohio St.	Michigan	Iowa	Wisconsin
6	Auburn	BYU	Butler	Colorado
7	West Virginia	Illinois	Marquette	LSU
8	Arizona	Indiana	Oklahoma	Florida
9	Arizona St.	Houston	USC	Virginia
10	Saint Mary’s	Texas Tech	Xavier	Providence
11	Rutgers	Wichita St.	Northern Iowa	East Tennessee St.
12	Stanford/Richmond	Utah St./UCLA	Yale	Stephen F. Austin
13	Liberty	Akron	Vermont	North Texas
14	New Mexico St.	Belmont	South Dakota St.	Colgate
15	UC Irvine	Wright St.	Hofstra	Eastern Washington
16	Little Rock	Winthrop	Siena/St. Francis PA	Prairie View A&M/NC Central

Number 1 Seeds: Kansas, Baylor, Gonzaga, Dayton
Lurking: San Diego St.

Last 4 Byes: Xavier, Providence, Rutgers, Wichita St.
Last 4 In: Stanford, Richmond, Utah St., UCLA
First 4 Out: Texas, Rhode Island, N.C. State, Cincinnati
Next 4 Out: Purdue, Georgetown, Arkansas, Memphis

Also Considered: Minnesota, Mississippi St., Alabama, South Carolina, Notre Dame, Oklahoma St., Furman, Tennessee, Clemson

Bracket Thoughts:
With losses from Florida St., Duke, and Maryland we are seeing the one line solidify. The only question appears to be the final #1, which will be in the East Region. Will it go to San Diego St. with only one loss, or will it go to Dayton who have no losses in regulation (2 in OT)? I’m leaning Dayton, which helps to keep teams closer to their geographic region.

The 4-6 lines will be a nightmare to seed. I’ve got 6 Big 10 teams within 8 spots of each other on the 4/5 line, which forces me to bump teams to avoid conference matchups per the NCAA bracketing principles. I do, however, feel solid about the teams included in my top 7 seed lines. Doubts about how to value teams creep in starting on the 8 line, as we see more resumes with clear blemishes. Hopefully the remaining games leading up to Selection Sunday can provide some separation and clarity.

I find myself succumbing to recency bias, as I’m favoring teams like Oklahoma, Providence, UCLA, and Texas who are trending to play themselves in. They aren’t all there, yet, but I’d prefer to see teams that are playing well leading up to the tournament, than a team that has fallen apart in recent months.