Bid Thief Bonanza!

Thanks to Ken Pomeroy, who has been tweeting out conference tournament projections, I wanted to analyze where the 2020 bid thieves may come into play. Bubble teams, beware. Below are your nightmare scenarios.

Southern Conference:
East Tennessee St. may have enough on the resume to sneak in as an at large. However, there are two teams here with legitimate shots to knock them off in the title game to steal the at-large bid. Furman earned the 2 seed in the conference tournament, and has about a 25% chance of winning the auto-bid, while UNC Greensboro, who was in bubble discussions until a couple late season losses, clocks in at about 19%. If either team wins, I think it is likely that we’ll see two Southern Conference teams earn bids on Selection Sunday.

Missouri Valley:
Northern Iowa won the regular season title despite some late stumbles. This is another team, that thanks to solid work in the nonconference schedule has a chance to see their name called on Selection Sunday even without their conference’s auto-bid. The main challengers will be Loyola Chicago, who will be looking to repeat their magical run to the final four (15%), and Indiana St. (11%). Both teams defeated the Panthers in the regular season, so crazier outcomes have happened.

Mountain West:
San Diego St. is the prohibitive favorite, and will be playing for a 1 seed during the conference tournament. However, Utah St. is currently in bubble discussions, and could lock up a bid by winning the conference tournament, which they are projected to do 19% of the time.

Atlantic Sun:
Does Liberty have enough on the resume to survive another loss? I’m not sure. Bubble teams won’t want to find out, though. North Florida shared the regular season crown with a split against Liberty, and have an 18% chance to cut down the nets and break out their dancing shoes.

Other Potential Bid Thieves (Brackets/Projections not yet finalized):
Ivy League (Favorite: Yale)
Southland (Favorite: Stephen F. Austin)
America East (Favorite: Vermont)

Stephen F. Austin is probably the most likely to earn an at-large thanks to their nice 45th SOR paired with the road win at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Would the committee give the Lumberjacks mulligan if it lost in the Southland Finals?