Bracketology Update 3/9/2020

1	Kansas	Baylor	Gonzaga	Dayton
2	San Diego St.	Florida St.	Creighton	Villanova
3	Duke	Michigan St.	Seton Hall	Kentucky
4	Maryland	Oregon	Wisconsin	Louisville
5	Ohio St.	BYU	Butler	West Virginia
6	Iowa	Michigan	Penn St.	Auburn
7	Illinois	Virginia	Houston	Colorado
8	Marquette	Arizona	USC	Oklahoma
9	Florida	Rutgers	Arizona St.	Saint Mary’s
10	LSU	Indiana	Texas Tech	Providence
11	Utah St.	Xavier	East Tennessee St.	Richmond/Stanford
12	UCLA/Cincinnati	Yale	Liberty	Stephen F. Austin
13	Akron	Vermont	New Mexico St.	Northern Colorado
14	Louisiana Tech	Belmont	Bradley	Colgate
15	Wright St.	UC Irvine	Hofstra	Texas St.
16	North Dakota St.	Winthrop	Siena/St. Francis PA	Prairie View A&M/Norfolk St.

Number 1 Seeds: Kansas, Baylor, Gonzaga, Dayton
Lurking: Florida St., Creighton, Villanova

Kansas has likely locked up the #1 overall seed, as Baylor and Gonzaga have taken losses, and even if Kansas were to lose its first B12 Tournament game, Dayton would not accrue enough quality wins to pass Kansas. If Dayton were to stumble, only a few teams have a path to move up: Florida St., Creighton and Villanova could end up with dual titles (Regular Season and Conference Tournament) in the ACC or Big East, which may be enough if Dayton takes a bad loss, although we would need to reevaluate if that were to happen.

Last 4 Byes: Indiana, Texas Tech, Providence, Xavier
Last 4 In: Richmond, Stanford, UCLA, Cicinnati
First 4 Out: Wichita St., Texas, N.C. State, Arkansas
Next 4 Out: Purdue, Saint Louis, Mississippi St., Oklahoma St.

Championship Week Preview:
We already have 5 bids locked up (see below), and while a few were surprises, we’ve probably only seen a single “bid thief” depending on where Utah St. fell in the at-large picture. It probably needed the win against San Diego St. to feel good about its profile, but since that came in the tournament final, we don’t have any questions about the Aggies’ fate.

Monday Games of Note –
Southern Conference:
#1 East Tennessee St. vs #7 Wofford – I think ETSU has done enough for a bid, but they can avoid an anxious week by winning the auto-bid.
West Coast Conference:
#5 San Francisco vs #1 Gonzaga – The first of a pair of final tests for the Bulldogs. This shouldn’t have much impact on Gonzaga, but San Francisco is now 2 wins away from stealing a bid an creating a 4 bid-WCC.
#2 BYU vs #3 Saint Mary’s – Important for 2 reasons: 1) Seeding. BYU is currently a 5 seed. Could they get a protected seed? 2) This will be the 3rd meeting for these teams, which then could not play in the NCAAT until the Elite Eight, and the winner would presumably play Gonzaga for a 3rd time (which would remove BYU from potentially playing as the 5 seed in the West).

Tuesday Games of Note (currently scheduled) –
Horizon League Final (teams TBD)
Colonial Athletic Final (teams TBD)
Summit League Final (teams TBD)
West Coast Final (teams TBD)

Wednesday Games of Note (currently scheduled) –
Patriot League Final (Boston University vs Colgate)
N.C. State vs TBD – Wolfpack must win to keep their tourney hopes alive.
Iowa St. vs Oklahoma St. – Cowboys are working to force their name into the discussion. This is a must win for those purposes.
Nebraska vs Indiana – Indiana would fall perilously close to the cut line with a loss to the reeling Cornhuskers.
Vanderbilt vs Arkansas – Arkansas needs multiple wins to have a chance to make the field.
California vs Stanford – Similar to Indiana, although probably in even worse shape, Stanford really needs to avoid a bad loss in their PAC12 opener.
DePaul vs Xavier – With Indiana and Stanford, Xavier does not want to find out what would happen with a loss to a non-tournament team.

Thursday Games of Note (currently scheduled) –
Texas Tech vs Texas – Despite Texas Tech’s sterling NET ranking, this may end up being an elimination game (especially if the bubble contracts any more.)
Purdue vs Ohio St. – Purdue may not be dead yet, but they probably need to get to 19-16, which involves making the Big Ten Tournament Finals.