Crunching numbers like the last crumbs in a bag of chips…

Number 1 Seeds: Kansas, Baylor, Gonzaga, Dayton
Lurking: Florida St., Creighton, Villanova

Kansas has likely locked up the #1 overall seed, as Baylor and Gonzaga have taken losses, and even if Kansas were to lose its first B12 Tournament game, Dayton would not accrue enough quality wins to pass Kansas. If Dayton were to stumble, only a few teams have a path to move up: Florida St., Creighton and Villanova could end up with dual titles (Regular Season and Conference Tournament) in the ACC or Big East, which may be enough if Dayton takes a bad loss, although we would need to reevaluate if that were to happen.

Last 4 Byes: Indiana, Texas Tech, Providence, Xavier
Last 4 In: Richmond, Stanford, UCLA, Cicinnati
First 4 Out: Wichita St., Texas, N.C. State, Arkansas
Next 4 Out: Purdue, Saint Louis, Mississippi St., Oklahoma St.

Championship Week Preview:
We already have 5 bids locked up (see below), and while a few were surprises, we’ve probably only seen a single “bid thief” depending on where Utah St. fell in the at-large picture. It probably needed the win against San Diego St. to feel good about its profile, but since that came in the tournament final, we don’t have any questions about the Aggies’ fate.

Monday Games of Note –
Southern Conference:
#1 East Tennessee St. vs #7 Wofford – I think ETSU has done enough for a bid, but they can avoid an anxious week by winning the auto-bid.
West Coast Conference:
#5 San Francisco vs #1 Gonzaga – The first of a pair of final tests for the Bulldogs. This shouldn’t have much impact on Gonzaga, but San Francisco is now 2 wins away from stealing a bid an creating a 4 bid-WCC.
#2 BYU vs #3 Saint Mary’s – Important for 2 reasons: 1) Seeding. BYU is currently a 5 seed. Could they get a protected seed? 2) This will be the 3rd meeting for these teams, which then could not play in the NCAAT until the Elite Eight, and the winner would presumably play Gonzaga for a 3rd time (which would remove BYU from potentially playing as the 5 seed in the West).

Tuesday Games of Note (currently scheduled) –
Horizon League Final (teams TBD)
Colonial Athletic Final (teams TBD)
Summit League Final (teams TBD)
West Coast Final (teams TBD)

Wednesday Games of Note (currently scheduled) –
Patriot League Final (Boston University vs Colgate)
N.C. State vs TBD – Wolfpack must win to keep their tourney hopes alive.
Iowa St. vs Oklahoma St. – Cowboys are working to force their name into the discussion. This is a must win for those purposes.
Nebraska vs Indiana – Indiana would fall perilously close to the cut line with a loss to the reeling Cornhuskers.
Vanderbilt vs Arkansas – Arkansas needs multiple wins to have a chance to make the field.
California vs Stanford – Similar to Indiana, although probably in even worse shape, Stanford really needs to avoid a bad loss in their PAC12 opener.
DePaul vs Xavier – With Indiana and Stanford, Xavier does not want to find out what would happen with a loss to a non-tournament team.

Thursday Games of Note (currently scheduled) –
Texas Tech vs Texas – Despite Texas Tech’s sterling NET ranking, this may end up being an elimination game (especially if the bubble contracts any more.)
Purdue vs Ohio St. – Purdue may not be dead yet, but they probably need to get to 19-16, which involves making the Big Ten Tournament Finals.

Thanks to Ken Pomeroy, who has been tweeting out conference tournament projections, I wanted to analyze where the 2020 bid thieves may come into play. Bubble teams, beware. Below are your nightmare scenarios.

Southern Conference:
East Tennessee St. may have enough on the resume to sneak in as an at large. However, there are two teams here with legitimate shots to knock them off in the title game to steal the at-large bid. Furman earned the 2 seed in the conference tournament, and has about a 25% chance of winning the auto-bid, while UNC Greensboro, who was in bubble discussions until a couple late season losses, clocks in at about 19%. If either team wins, I think it is likely that we’ll see two Southern Conference teams earn bids on Selection Sunday.

Missouri Valley:
Northern Iowa won the regular season title despite some late stumbles. This is another team, that thanks to solid work in the nonconference schedule has a chance to see their name called on Selection Sunday even without their conference’s auto-bid. The main challengers will be Loyola Chicago, who will be looking to repeat their magical run to the final four (15%), and Indiana St. (11%). Both teams defeated the Panthers in the regular season, so crazier outcomes have happened.

Mountain West:
San Diego St. is the prohibitive favorite, and will be playing for a 1 seed during the conference tournament. However, Utah St. is currently in bubble discussions, and could lock up a bid by winning the conference tournament, which they are projected to do 19% of the time.

Atlantic Sun:
Does Liberty have enough on the resume to survive another loss? I’m not sure. Bubble teams won’t want to find out, though. North Florida shared the regular season crown with a split against Liberty, and have an 18% chance to cut down the nets and break out their dancing shoes.

Other Potential Bid Thieves (Brackets/Projections not yet finalized):
Ivy League (Favorite: Yale)
Southland (Favorite: Stephen F. Austin)
America East (Favorite: Vermont)

Stephen F. Austin is probably the most likely to earn an at-large thanks to their nice 45th SOR paired with the road win at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Would the committee give the Lumberjacks mulligan if it lost in the Southland Finals?

Number 1 Seeds: Kansas, Baylor, Gonzaga, Dayton
Lurking: San Diego St.

Last 4 Byes: Xavier, Providence, Rutgers, Wichita St.
Last 4 In: Stanford, Richmond, Utah St., UCLA
First 4 Out: Texas, Rhode Island, N.C. State, Cincinnati
Next 4 Out: Purdue, Georgetown, Arkansas, Memphis

Also Considered: Minnesota, Mississippi St., Alabama, South Carolina, Notre Dame, Oklahoma St., Furman, Tennessee, Clemson

Bracket Thoughts:
With losses from Florida St., Duke, and Maryland we are seeing the one line solidify. The only question appears to be the final #1, which will be in the East Region. Will it go to San Diego St. with only one loss, or will it go to Dayton who have no losses in regulation (2 in OT)? I’m leaning Dayton, which helps to keep teams closer to their geographic region.

The 4-6 lines will be a nightmare to seed. I’ve got 6 Big 10 teams within 8 spots of each other on the 4/5 line, which forces me to bump teams to avoid conference matchups per the NCAA bracketing principles. I do, however, feel solid about the teams included in my top 7 seed lines. Doubts about how to value teams creep in starting on the 8 line, as we see more resumes with clear blemishes. Hopefully the remaining games leading up to Selection Sunday can provide some separation and clarity.

I find myself succumbing to recency bias, as I’m favoring teams like Oklahoma, Providence, UCLA, and Texas who are trending to play themselves in. They aren’t all there, yet, but I’d prefer to see teams that are playing well leading up to the tournament, than a team that has fallen apart in recent months.

Number 1 Seeds: Kanasas, Baylor, Gonzaga, Dayton
Lurking: San Diego St., Maryland

Last 4 Byes: Rutgers, Wichita St., Rhode Island, Oklahoma
Last 4 In: Utah St., Stanford, Georgetown, Cincinnati
First 4 Out: USC, Richmond, Texas, Mississippi St.
Next 4 Out: Arkansas, N.C. State, UCLA, Notre Dame

Also Considered: Purdue, Minnesota, Alabama, South Carolina, Memphis, UNC Greensboro

Bracket Breakdown:
Welcome to the 1-Line, Dayton. This has less to do with the actual results (San Diego St. did escape against Colorado St.), but more with how teams are looking. After rolling for a while, San Diego St. appears to have lost its edge following the clinching of the MWC Regular Season title. With stronger schedule metrics, and only 1 more loss (both in Q1A on neutral courts), Dayton is my choice for the 4th number 1 seed.

The news isn’t all bad for San Diego St. as their consolation prize is the #2 seed in the West Region and a path to stay close to home until the Final Four. With recent losses by several contenders, the remaining slots on the 2 line could fall many different ways. I currently like Florida St., Maryland, and Creighton to round out that line, which pushes both Duke and Villanova down to #3 seeds (either could easily be considered a 2 based on their accomplishments).

Toward the bottom of the bracket, my stance is to punish teams that haven’t performed away from home or against teams projected to make the tournament. I’ve been a bit lower on Texas Tech, Rutgers, Wichita St., Rhode Island, Oklahoma, Stanford, and Georgetown, while giving some credit to Cincinnati (3 wins against the field) for the last bid despite some questionable losses.

Number 1 Seeds: Kansas, Baylor, Gonzaga, San Diego St.
Lurking: Duke, Dayton, Maryland

Last 4 Byes: Rutgers, Wichita St., Georgetown, Rhode Island
Last 4 In: Stanford, Utah St., Oklahoma, N.C. State
First 4 Out: USC, Richmond, Arkansas, Cincinnati
Next 4 Out: Mississippi St., Alabama, Purdue, Memphis

Also considered: Minnesota, Texas, Notre Dame, UNC Greensboro, Oklahoma St., South Carolina, UCLA

Bracket Notes:
Somehow the top line remains unchanged (other than Kansas and Baylor swapping #1 and #2 overall). Despite losses for Gonzaga and San Diego St., Maryland was unable to capitalize as they fell at Ohio St. on Sunday. My gut says the committee will eventually move the best of Duke, Dayton, or Maryland to the #1 seed in the East, and the Aztecs will slot into the #2 seed in the West to help ease some bracketing issues. For instance, while San Diego St. is a #1 seed, it pushes Duke, Maryland, and Dayton to the 2 line, putting a Cleveland and two Greensboro pods as 2/7 pairings in the South and East Regionals. Since BYU must play in one of these regionals, as a current #7 seed, they would have to be bumped to the #8 seed in the St. Louis/Houston pod & regional site to meet their Thursday/Saturday scheduling requirement. Stacking 2 of Duke, Maryland, and Dayton in the East opens up another potential site for a 7 seeded BYU to play in St. Louis/Houston.

The top 7 teams are all but locked in, as discussed above. There are then a set of 4 teams all jockeying for the fourth #2 seed: Creighton, Seton Hall, Florida St., and Villanova. At least one of the Big East teams should have a better resume than Florida St., but the eye test may lean Florida St., which makes this a very difficult call. To circle back to determining the final #1 seed, the placement for the eventual #8 team becomes less problematic if San Diego St. takes the #2 seed in the West; likely leaving the #2 in the Houston regional.

Not Oregon’s best week, losing at Arizona St., but completing the sweep against Arizona was a nice bounce back, and enough to maintain position as the final 3 seed. I’ve got Kentucky ahead of Louisville on the 4 line, as I value the head-to-head win and the 4-2 record vs Q1A (Louisville is only 1-3). There does seem to be a bit of a drop-off after the top 14, and I’ve currently got West Virginia and Michigan St. rounding out my top 16.

My 5 and 6 seeds are all very close, and will likely reorder with every result from the group. The teams on my top 8 lines are all mostly locks at this point, although that probably has more to do with how thin the resumes get for my last 4 byes, and last 4 in. We end up with teams that really don’t have a lot of wins against the tournament field, which is why I feel better about Providence and Rutger’s chances despite their flaws (bad losses and inadequate road record respectively).

I feel bad for Minnesota and Purdue, both of which have enough good wins to make the field (and potentially advance in the tournament). However, they have so many losses that I don’t think the committee will reward them until they can get a few games above .500.

Number 1 Seeds: Kansas, Baylor, Gonzaga, San Diego St.
Lurking: Maryland, Duke, Dayton

Last 4 Byes: Rutgers, Providence, USC, Oklahoma
Last 4 In: Georgetown, Rhode Island, Stanford, Utah St.
First 4 Out: Richmond, N.C. State, Purdue, Arkansas
Next 4 Out: Mississippi St., Alabama, Cincinnati, Memphis

Others considered: Minnesota, Texas, UNC Greensboro, Oklahoma St., South Carolina, Notre Dame, St. John’s, UCLA, VCU, Syracuse

Bracket Thoughts:
At this point, it feels like you can consider the first 8 seed lines as locked into the tournament. The 9 seed line is where the resumes felt like they really began dropping off and feeling more uncertain.

I have been lower on teams like Rutgers and Providence, but after comparing resumes, while they each have their negatives, it is hard to overlook the “wins against the field” for these teams. That also explains why teams like Oklahoma, Rhode Island, and Stanford may find themselves a bit lower here.

I think bubble teams may be able to breathe a little easier this year, as I don’t see many conferences that can legitimately create bid thieves to contract the bubble. The B1G and BE are deep enough that almost any team with a realistic shot of winning the auto bid has already secured a bid. The P12 and B12 have significant separation between the top and middle of the league. We’re really looking at the SEC or ACC (can one of the fringe bubble teams get hot?) Or do the A10 or AAC produce an unlikely champion? Most of the other conferences are true one bid leagues without much realistic hope for an at-large.

Number 1 Seeds: Baylor, Kansas, Gonzaga, San Diego St.
Lurking: Duke, Dayton, Maryland

Last 4 Byes: Purdue, Indiana, Wichita St., Rhode Island
Last 4 In: USC, Richmond, Arkansas, Virginia
First 4 Out: Utah St., Cincinnati, Alabama, Mississippi St.
Next 4 Out: Stanford, Providence, Tennessee, VCU
*Minnesota would be in if they were 2+ games above .500, but due to historical trends, they cannot be considered until that point.

Multi Bid Conferences:
B1G (11)
BE (7)
P12 (5)
SEC (5)
B12 (5)
ACC (4)
WCC (3)
A10 (3)
AAC (2)

Bracket Notes:
BYU was bumped to an 8 seed, as they have playing date restrictions that require specific pod/region combinations (St. Louis/Houston was the nearest combination that could accommodate). Texas Tech was the beneficiary moving from an 8 up to the 7 seed line.

I am leaving the top 6 teams from the Committee reveal until a team loses, so Maryland is currently capped at 7th overall until Dayton or Duke lose.

My top 7 have clear separation from the rest of the pack, and Seton Hall and Penn St. are my next two teams, with one being rewarded with a 2 Seed (West), and the other getting the favorable Albany/New York path as the 3 seed in the East.

I seem to be too low on Florida St. and Louisville, but I cannot justify placing them on the 2 or 3 seed lines over the following teams:
Oregon – very good top end wins (3 Q1A)
Creighton – strong NET (12), 7 Q1 wins
Villanova – 2 Q1A wins
vs
Florida St. – only 3 Q1 wins (H2H against Louisville)
Louisville – strong NET (9), but only 4 Q1 wins

The resumes appear to get very close in the backend of the 4 seed line, so we could see significant movement from teams 15-28 or so as more results come in.

My biggest personal surprises for teams currently left out of the tournament are as follows:
VCU – Surprising losses have dropped VCU to the point that they may need to win today (2/18) against Dayton to solidify their bid.
Cincinnati – This team looks like a tournament team, but they only have 2 wins against the at-large field (a 3rd against Vermont, but also a loss to Colgate). If they win everything except any remaining games against Houston, I think they likely sneak in, as they would add a win against Wichita St. along the way, and the cut line is likely to move down with bubble teams losing rather than shrink up with bid thieves (few fringe at large teams in 1 bid conferences this year).
Utah St. – A couple wins against the SEC (LSU and Florida) on neutral courts are almost the entire case for Utah St. Is that enough without beating San Diego St. in the MWC Tournament? This is one of the teams to keep an eye on if the committee wanted to “spread the wealth” of bids.

Number 1 Seeds: Baylor, Duke, Gonzaga, San Diego St.
Lurking: Duke, Dayton, Maryland, Seton Hall

Last 4 Byes: Florida, Saint Mary’s, VCU, USC
Last 4 In: Wichita St., Stanford, Arkansas, Utah St.
First 4 Out: Georgetown, Virginia, Arizona St., Richmond
Next 4 Out: Cincinnati, Alabama, Mississippi St. N.C. State

Multi Bid Conferences:
B1G (12)
BE (6)
SEC (5)
P12 (5)
B12 (5)
ACC (3)
WCC (3)
A10 (3)
AAC (2)
MWC (2)

Bracket Thoughts:
I’ve taken several days before releasing a full update and breakdown, as I needed some time to adjust my ranking system to better match what the Selection Committee released last Saturday.

I’m holding Gonzaga over San Diego St. for the 1 seed in the West Region only because the committee showed that it was their initial decision during their mid-season reveal. I struggle to look at the metrics and see that, so there must be some subjective reasoning behind that decision.

I also don’t agree with the perceived strength of the top ACC teams, having had 2 teams (Duke, Louisville) on the 2 line and a third (Florida St.) as a 3. My guess is that as the ACC sorts itself out we’ll end up with a 2, 3, and 4; which will be more appropriate in my mind, given the lack of depth in the league.

On the flip side of the coin, I think Maryland and Seton Hall were under-seeded in the reveal, and that Penn St. is likely to shoot into the rankings despite not being listed or in the discussion for a 4 seed. Look for each of these teams to move up the list where appropriate, especially as we get further from the committee’s reveal.

I’ve also been spending some time pondering how to assign teams into pods/regions as I move down the seed list. It’s easy for the first 16 teams, as I can select the most favorable remaining pod first, and then slot them into the most favorable remaining region. However, for the automatic qualifiers, it becomes tricky. Do you slot a New England area team into an Albany pod in the West Region, or a Sacramento pod assigned to the East Region? I’ve landed on leaning toward the preferred pod and ignoring which regional site teams get assigned to, with the thought process that half the teams will never get to the regional site anyway.

Number 1 Seeds: Baylor, Kansas, San Diego St., Gonzaga
Lurking: Butler, Seton Hall, Dayton

Last 4 Byes: Saint Mary’s, Rhode Island, Georgetown, Xavier
Last 4 In: Minnesota, VCU, Stanford, Purdue
First 4 Out: Texas, Arizona St., Memphis, Mississippi St.
Next 4 Out: Saint Louis, Virginia, Utah St., Alabama

Also considered: DePaul, Cincinnati, Syracuse, Richmond, St. John’s, Tennessee, Virginia Tech, N.C. State, Oklahoma St., UNC Greensboro, Notre Dame, Washington, Providence

Multi Bid Conferences:
B1G (12)
BE (7)
B12 (5)
SEC (5)
P12 (5)
ACC (3)
WCC (3)
A10 (3)
AAC (2)

Bracket Thoughts:
After having time to fully review resumes, I’ve made a few changes in the first few lines. I’m giving Baylor the nod over Kansas for #1 overall. While Kansas has more quality wins and the #1 SOS, Baylor isn’t far behind and has the head-to-head win at Kansas, which is the kicker for me. I’ve also moved Dayton solidly onto the 2 line after reviewing their profile. While they lack the volume of quality wins, they have only 2 losses, and they were both in overtime to tournament teams (Kansas and Colorado). If they win those games, this team is being looked at just like SDSU and Gonzaga. I finally tried to do a better job of incorporating the raw NET rankings, as reviewing what the committee has done in the past shows a strong correlation between NET rankings and seeding on the first few lines. I abandon this relationship as we head toward the cut-line, and look more at who you beat and where.

Look ahead:
While my bracket is created as of a point in time, I do enjoy looking at upcoming matchups and thinking about where teams are likely to end up. Here are a few teams that could make moves one way or the other into/out of the bracket.

Potential Risers:
Ohio St. – With a loaded Big Ten, the Buckeyes will have plenty of opportunities to rack up solid wins, and almost any loss will be against top tier teams. It’s a recipe for success the entire league gets to take advantage, and based on metrics, the Buckeyes are likely to go 6-4 to add solid wins to their profile.

Texas Tech – Even if we assume 2 losses at the end of the regular season to Kansas and Baylor; Texas Tech is likely to pile up some additional wins against Oklahoma, Iowa State, Oklahoma St., Texas, and TCU. While not great teams, they are mostly strong enough to be considered at least Q2 wins, especially on the road.

Stanford – Stanford only has 5 losses so far, so even if they lose to the top teams in the P12 (Arizona, Oregon, Colorado), they should still be able to rack up wins against the rest of the league to compile a nice record and respectable NET ranking by the end of the year.

Arizona St. – Arizona St. starts in worse position than Stanford, but has a path to compile several quality wins down the stretch. They’re on the outside looking in right now, but they’re in position to make a move.

Mississippi St. – It always helps to have the best player on the floor, and more often than not, the Bulldogs will with Reggie Perry. The back half of their schedule is favorable, and projects out to a 7-3 finish down the stretch, which should have them making up ground on other bubble teams. The biggest hurdle for Mississippi St. is that they only have 3 opportunities for solid wins left. If they take advantage, they’ll be in the field, but otherwise their three best wins are vs Arkansas, @ Florida, and vs Tennessee.

Potential Fallers:
Oklahoma – The Sooners have a BRUTAL close to the schedule, projected to be favored in only 2 more games. They’ll need to pull off some upsets to maintain their position in the field, but at least they can’t say the opportunity isn’t there.

Wisconsin – This one is cheating a bit. Wisconsin, while solidly in the field at the moment, will be without Kobe King for the remainder of the year. If they struggle down the stretch, the committee will take that into account and the Badgers likely won’t get the benefit of the doubt.

Number 1 Seeds: Kansas, Baylor, Seton Hall, San Diego St.
Lurking: Gonzaga, Butler

Last 4 Byes: Arkansas, VCU, Minnesota, Purdue
Last 4 In: Georgetown, Rhode Island, Texas, Memphis
First 4 Out: Stanford, Xavier, Virginia, Syracuse
Next 4 Out: Arizona St., Utah St., Mississippi St., Tennessee

Multi Bid Conferences:
B1G (12)
BE (6)
B12 (6)
SEC (5)
P12 (4)
ACC (3)
WCC (3)
A10 (3)
AAC (3)

Bracket Thoughts:
The top of the bracket is starting to sort itself out. As potential contenders lose, it has pared down the list of potential #1 seeds. West Virginia losing to Texas Tech was the latest victim.

The bottom of the bracket is quite the opposite. I am struggling to find teams that I feel good about including in the bracket, so despite poor overall records, teams like Minnesota and Purdue find themselves in the last 4 byes as other bubble teams have lost recently and don’t have the quality wins of these squads.

Arizona has been one of the teams that I have been furthest from consensus on. I recently had them as a 10 seed, but they find themselves all the way up to a 5 today. This is the result of the shifting quads. Arizona previously was winless in Q1 games, but as their resume stands today, they are 3-4 due to shifting ranks. That’s good enough to move them up the board significantly given their superior computer metrics.