Today, I take a look at upcoming games that will have the biggest impacts to the top of the bracket as things sit today, with an explanation of potential impacts. Games will be grouped by area of the bracket.

Impact Games for the Top of the Bracket:
Kansas at Baylor (2/22)

This game could ultimately determine the number 1 overall seed. If Baylor is able to sweep Kansas, and win a dual B12 championship (Regular Season and Tournament), they should be the number one overall seed.

Kansas at West Virginia (2/12)
West Virginia at Baylor (2/15)
Baylor at West Virginia (3/7)

If another team can muddy the waters on the top line, it’s probably West Virginia. Sweeping these three games likely puts them onto the top line in favor of either San Diego St./Gonzaga/Seton Hall.

Gonzaga at Saint Mary’s (2/8)
Gonzaga at BYU (2/22)
San Diego St. at Boise St. (2/16)
San Diego St. at Nevada (2/29)

Will either of these teams lose again? These our the most likely spots for an upset, but if they both win out, they should both be on the top line.

Villanova at Butler (2/5)
Seton Hall at Villanova (2/8)
Butler at Seton Hall (2/19)
Villanova at Seton Hall (3/4)

If Seton Hall wins out, it should probably receive the number 1 seed in the East Region. They’ve played a great schedule, had 2 close losses to good teams (vs Michigan St. and Oregon) and lost twice on the road not at 100% (injuries to Mamukelashvili and Powell). Butler also has an outside shot at the top line, but probably needs to win out and get help from San Diego St./Gonzaga losing.

1	Kansas	Baylor	San Diego St.	Seton Hall
2	Gonzaga	Butler	West Virginia	Villanova
3	Dayton	Duke	Oregon	Maryland
4	Michigan St.	Iowa	Louisville	Florida St.
5	LSU	Creighton	Penn St.	Colorado
6	Auburn	Kentucky	Ohio St.	Illinois
7	Marquette	Houston	Indiana	USC
8	Wisconsin	Rutgers	Michigan	Wichita St.
9	Oklahoma	Arizona	Arkansas	BYU
10	Saint Mary’s	Minnesota	Stanford	VCU
11	Texas Tech	East Tennessee St.	Florida	Purdue/Arizona St.
12	Georgetown/Rhode Island	Northern Iowa	Yale	Stephen F. Austin
13	Liberty	Akron	Vermont	North Texas
14	Colgate	Wright St.	New Mexico St.	Winthrop
15	Georgia St.	Oral Roberts	Murray St.	Montana
16	Monmouth	Hofstra	UC Irvine/Prairie View A&M	Robert Morris/Norfolk St.

Number 1 Seeds: Kansas, Baylor, San Diego St., Seton Hall
Lurking: Gonzaga, Butler, West Virginia

Last 4 Byes: Stanford, VCU, Texas Tech, Florida
Last 4 In: Purdue, Arizona St., Georgetown, Rhode Island
First 4 Out: Xavier, Mississippi St., Richmond, Memphis
Next 4 Out: Virginia, Syracuse, Saint Louis, Utah St.

Bracket Thoughts:
It’s been a rough few days for the ACC as a whole. bubble teams Syracuse, Virginia Tech, and N.C. State have all lost games, leaving all three out of the current bracket. Without many opportunities for strong, resume building wins, teams will have to follow Virginia’s lead and beat one of the top 3 teams in the league.

I’m not confident in several of the teams at the bottom of the at large pool, as Texas Tech and Florida have only a single Q1 win each, Purdue is only 11-10 overall, etc. There just haven’t been 36 at large teams that have separated themselves at this point. All I can hope for is that several teams “play their way in” rather than seeing teams back into the tournament by default.

Big Ten
Locks: Michigan St., Maryland, Iowa, Penn St., Wisconsin, Rutgers, Illinois
Should be in: Ohio St., Michigan
Work to do: Indiana, Minnesota, Purdue

Indiana lost a heartbreaker to Maryland in a 66-67 decision. A solid showing for the Hoosiers, but a missed opportunity.
Minnesota never really found itself in a position to challenge Michigan St., and falls to 3-8 vs quad 1.
Ohio St. took care of Northwestern, but didn’t add much to its profile with only a quad 3 win.

Weekend games:
Indiana 66 vs Maryland 67 (Q1B opportunity)
Minnesota 52 vs Michigan St. 70 (Q1A opportunity)
Ohio St. 71 at Northwestern 59 (Q3)
Purdue idle

Big East
Locks: Seton Hall, Butler, Villanova, Creighton
Should be in: Marquette
Work to do: Georgetown, Xavier, DePaul, St. John’s Providence

Providence stayed close while hosting Villanova, but couldn’t pull off the upset. At 10-11 overall, they’ll need to add more wins to justify a bid.
St. John’s won at DePaul 79-66, adding a Q1 win to the resume and moving them up the bubble list. Still out in my book, but moving closer. DePaul on the otherhand is sliding further out. 1-6 in league play isn’t an official committee metric, but there isn’t a lot of precedence to include teams more than 2 games below .500 in league play. I’m going to remove DePaul from consideration until they can get back within that margin.
Xavier couldn’t take advantage of a road opportunity against Creighton. No shame in that, but to the victor go the spoils.

Weekend games:
Marquette idle
Georgetown idle
Xavier 66 at Creighton 77 (Q1A opportunity)
DePaul 66 vs St. John’s 79 (Q3)
St. John’s 79 at DePaul 66 (Q1B opportunity)
Providence 60 vs Villanova 64 (Q1A opportunity)

ACC
Locks: Duke, Louisville, Florida St.
Work to do: Virginia Tech, N.C. State, Notre Dame, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Virginia, Clemson

Virginia Tech adds a bad loss at Boston College, which has dropped them into the first four out.
N.C. State joined Virginia Tech, although they find themselves further down the bubble list.
Notre Dame fell just short of a signature victory at Florida St. That would have been a massive win for them. Unfortunately, they’ll have to rely on playing at Duke and the return visit from Florida St. as their remaining opportunities for a marquee win to help solidify the profile.
Syracuse won vs Pittsburgh in a battle of bubble teams. It’s not the best win, but it still falls into quad 2, and having a head to head victory against competition for a bid is always a nice trump card to have.
Pittsburgh sees the other side of the coin, as they took the loss from fellow bubble team Syracuse. Pittsburgh isn’t out of contention, yet, but their sliding down the list of potential at large teams.
Virginia added a road win to its resume, which is a nice boost for a team without a win over a surefire tournament team (is Arizona St. their best win, or at Syracuse?). They still have four cracks at the top 3 teams in the ACC, so they can strengthen their case down the stretch, but there isn’t a lot of meat on the bone here.
Clemson falls to only 10-9 on the year, so we’re going to pull them out of consideration until they get a few more wins to be safely over .500.

Weekend Games:
Virginia Tech 56 at Boston College 61 (Q3)
N.C. State 58 at Georgia Tech 64 (Q2A opportunity)
Notre Dame 84 at Florida St. 85 (Q1A opportunity)
Syracuse 69 vs Pittsburgh 61 (Q2B opportunity)
Pittsburgh 61 at Syracuse 69 (Q1B opportunity)
Virginia 65 at Wake Forest 63 (Q2B opportunity)
Clemson 62 at Louisville 80 (Q1A opportunity)

Big Twelve
Locks: Kansas, Baylor, West Virginia
Should be in: Oklahoma, Texas Tech
Work to do: Texas, TCU, Oklahoma St.

Oklahoma took advantage of its home date with Mississippi St. That gets them to 7 quad 1 and quad 2 wins, which is a respectable number, although only 2 are against quad 1.
Texas Tech is really lacking results. After clawing back against a talented Kentucky squad, they fell in extra time missing the chance to add a second quad 1 victory.
Texas nearly overcame a 10 point deficit at the half, but fell to LSU in the B12/SEC challenge. With only 2 wins against quads 1 and 2, they’ll need to find some quality wins (ideally away from home) to help their cause.
TCU has a solid record at first glance, but when you realize they are just 3-6 against quads 1 and 2, while going 9-0 against quads 3 and 4, you realize the record is more of a mirage than anything.
Oklahoma St. won at Texas A&M. This doesn’t help much, although it is better than absorbing a Q3 loss.

Weekend Games:
Oklahoma 63 vs Mississippi St. 62 (Q2A opportunity)
Texas Tech 74 vs Kentucky 76 (Q1B opportunity)
Texas 67 vs LSU 69 (Q1B opportunity)
TCU 67 at Arkansas 78 (Q1A opportunity)
Oklahoma St. 73 at Texas A&M 62 (Q3)

Southeastern Conference
Locks: Auburn, LSU, Kentucky
Should be in: Arkansas, Florida
Work to do: Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi St.

Arkansas was happy to host TCU who provided a solid quad 2 victory. With a top 20 NCSOS and 5 wins against quads 1 and 2, Arkansas is nearing lock status. A couple more wins and we should be there.
Florida couldn’t take advantage of a visit from AP #1 Baylor.  You don’t get many opportunities for a win that would carry that much strength into March, so Florida remains with only a single quad 1 victory.
Similarly, Tennessee couldn’t keep pace with Kansas in the Phog.  For a team right on the cut line, that was a game that would have been nice to have in their back pocket, but it just was not meant to be.
Alabama was able to beat a struggling, but scrappy, Kansas St. squad.  This is another “avoid bad losses” situation.  So kudos for that, but a home victory over a sub .500 nonconference foe isn’t going to earn you much respect.
Mississippi St. missed an opportunity to strengthen its bubble positioning as it fell to Oklahoma.  Having only 2 quality wins isn’t going to cut it, especially with 2 quad 3 losses to compensate for.

Weekend Games:
Arkansas 78 vs TCU 67 (Q2B opportunity)
Florida 61 vs Baylor 72 (Q1A opportunity)
Tennessee 68 at Kansas 74 (Q1A opportunity)
Alabama 77 vs Kansas St. 74 (Q3)
Mississippi St. 62 vs Oklahoma 63 (Neutral, Q1B opportunity)

Pacific Twelve
Locks: Oregon, Colorado
Should be in: Arizona, Stanford, USC
Work to do: Arizona St., Washington

Arizona got stunned in Tempe stoking questions about the inconsistency between the Wildcats’ NET ranking (10) and their results (1-4 vs quad 1).
Arizona St. on the other hand, gets a marquee victory to pin its hopes on, and moves into the last 4 in.
USC took care of Oregon St.  Adding a road victory in the process.  The Trojans are rewarded by moving up to the 7-seed line in the latest bracket.
Washington dropped another game to Colorado, and I’m ready to remove them from consideration for the time being.  Without Quade Green, they just don’t have the results to justify a spot in the tournament.
Stanford hurt its case for a bid dropping a road game to rival Cal.  This is a bad loss for one of the surprise teams this year, although the resume is still lacking some substance.  They’ll fall to a double digit seed in the latest update.

Weekend Games:
Arizona 65 at Arizona St. 66 (Q1B opportunity)
Arizona St. 66 vs Arizona 65 (Q1A opportunity)
USC 75 at Oregon St. 55 (Q2A opportunity)
Washington 62 at Colorado 76 (Q1A opportunity)
Stanford 50 at California 52 (Q3 opportunity)

Atlantic Ten
Locks: Dayton
Work to do: VCU, Richmond, Rhode Island, Saint Louis

The A10 is likely to see its bids fluctuate throughout the rest of the season. With 4 teams on my S-curve between positions 47 and 57, we’ll likely see movement in and out of the bracket every week.
The A10 bubble teams will likely either need to perform well against the other bubble teams or beat Dayton.

West Coast
Locks: Gonzaga
Work to do: BYU, Saint Mary’s

BYU and Saint Mary’s are probably safe, but the only way to lock up a bid is going to be to win against Gonzaga.

Weekend Games:
BYU 82 at San Francisco 83 (Q2A opportunity)
Saint Mary’s 73 at Loyola Marymount 62 (Q3)

Big Ten
Locks: Michigan St., Maryland, Iowa, Penn St., Wisconsin, Rutgers, Illinois
Should be in: Ohio St., Michigan
Work to do: Indiana, Minnesota, Purdue

Ohio St. and Michigan were once top 5 teams, let’s not forget that. Ohio St. still has strong metrics, and both of these teams have played games missing key players during their recent slides. I fully expect them to turn things around before the end of the season to easily claim bids as middling seeds.

Indiana just needs some more quality wins. They’ve taken care of business and avoided bad losses (10-0 vs Q3/4), but they have only 3 quad 1 wins. Add a few more quad 1 and quad 2 wins and this is a team that could earn a good seed. Minnesota and Purdue have the opposite issue. They have good wins, but they just have so many losses (albeit against quality opposition) that their overall record makes it difficult to justify selection. As the saying goes… “Just win, baby.”
Weekend games:
Indiana vs Maryland (Q1B opportunity)
Minnesota vs Michigan St. (Q1A opportunity)
Purdue idle

Big East
Locks: Seton Hall, Butler, Villanova, Creighton
Should be in: Marquette
Work to do: Georgetown, Xavier, DePaul, St. John’s Providence

Marquette missed a golden opportunity against Butler on 1/24 with an overtime loss. They should still be safe, but that probably would have locked up a bid for the Golden Eagles.

The bottom half of the league is filled with teams that have mixed and middling profiles.
Georgetown is still searching for a signature win. They’ll get an opportunity to host Butler and Seton hall in the coming weeks, so we’ll see if they can capitalize.
Xavier is also lacking the top end wins on its profile. They’ll travel to Creighton this week, and could add another quality (although still not marquee) win against Marquette later this week.
DePaul had a great showing in the nonconference portion of the schedule, and has come back to Earth a bit since conference play started. 3 Q1A wins is great, but 2 Q3 losses offset that to some degree. This is a team that just needs to take care of business.
St. John’s is a team with no road wins thus far. I heard an interesting stat that only a handful of teams have been selected for an at large bid in recent years without more than 3 road wins.
Providence has been very up and down. They’ve got 2 losses in each of quad 3 and quad 4, which really weighs down the profile. They’ll need to continue to step up in conference play to offset the early hole they dug for themselves.
Weekend games:
Marquette idle
Georgetown idle
Xavier at Creighton (Q1A opportunity)
DePaul vs St. John’s (Q3)
St. John’s at DePaul (Q1B opportunity)
Providence vs Villanova (Q1A opportunity)

ACC
Locks: Duke, Louisville, Florida St.
Work to do: Virginia Tech, N.C. State, Notre Dame, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Virginia, Clemson

Virginia Tech has a solid record, but they played a 300+ ranked nonconference strength of schedule. That is not something you want to see on a bubble resume. 3 Q1 wins and 2 Q2 wins are respectable, but that’s all they’ve got on their resume. A win against Michigan St. is nice, but they’ll need more to compensate for their schedule.
N.C. State is really lacking top end wins. Only 1 game against Q1A (loss at Auburn), and only 3 Q1B wins coupled with a Q3 loss have N.C. State currently above the cut line, but they’ll want to keep winning to solidify that spot.
Notre Dame only owns a single Q1 win, and only a single Q2 win as well. When you also have a Q4 loss, you need several good wins to compensate.
Syracuse actually has a 4-1 road record, which may earn them extra points with the committee. That said, they only have 4 wins combined in quads 1 and 2 (and no games played against Q1A competition).
Pittsburgh is another team with some bad losses (vs Nicholls St. and Wake Forest) and not enough quality wins to compensate at the moment. They’re not dead, yet, but they don’t have a ton of opportunities to impress the committee left.
Virginia can’t possibly miss the tournament after winning the whole thing last year, right? With 2 Q3 losses to make up for, they need to start adding quality wins. The opportunities are there, with 4 games left against the trio of top ACC teams as well as 4 other games against fellow bubble teams. They just have to take advantage of their remaining opportunities.
Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but it takes quality wins to overcome bad losses. Clemson is another team that suffered disappointing losses and just doesn’t have enough positives to offset it, yet.

I’ve found myself wondering if the ACC has the quality wins available to elevate their bubble teams. The only solid home opportunities are against Duke, Louisville, and Florida St. the three clear best teams in the league. Otherwise teams will have to go on the road and beat fellow bubble teams in order to earn Q1 wins. Time will tell, but this could be a lean year for the ACC.

Weekend Games:
Virginia Tech at Boston College (Q3)
N.C. State at Georgia Tech (Q2A opportunity)
Notre Dame at Florida St. (Q1A opportunity)
Syracuse vs Pittsburgh (Q2B opportunity)
Pittsburgh at Syracuse (Q1B opportunity)
Virginia at Wake Forest (Q2B opportunity)
Clemson at Louisville (Q1A opportunity)

Big Twelve
Locks: Kansas, Baylor, West Virginia
Should be in: Oklahoma, Texas Tech
Work to do: Texas, TCU, Oklahoma St.

The B12 is one of the easier conferences to evaluate, as they have 3 teams in the top 10 of the NET rankings, which will be safely in the tournament, and several other teams that will be in the hunt, but only 1 combined bad loss (Iowa St. vs Florida A&M).

Oklahoma has a respectable 2 quad 1 wins and 4 quad 2 wins at this point in the season. If they can avoid any bad losses and add a couple more quality wins, they’ll be safe.
Texas Tech is just lacking a few quality wins as well. They have strong metrics (a top 25 team in KenPom rankings), but they have only 1 quad 1 win, 2 quad 2 wins. Putting together a good conference campaign should help seal a bid for Tech.
Texas again is just lacking good wins. They have holy two total quad 1 and quad 2 wins.
TCU still has no quad 1 victories. Until they start accumulating impressive victories there isn’t much more to say.
Oklahoma St. has a prohibitive NET ranking of 83, which is currently the biggest obstacle. They’ve got a Q1 win after beating Houston on the road, but 0-7 in their other Q1 games has limited their position on the S-curve.
Weekend Games:
Oklahoma vs Mississippi St. (Q2A opportunity)
Texas Tech vs Kentucky (Q1B opportunity)
Texas vs LSU (Q1B opportunity)
TCU at Arkansas (Q1A opportunity)
Oklahoma St. at Texas A&M (Q3)

Southeastern Conference
Locks: Auburn, LSU, Kentucky
Should be in: Arkansas, Florida
Work to do: Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi St.

Arkansas has avoided bad losses, currently finds itself on the 8/9 line by default, as they really don’t have many quality wins to move any higher, but there aren’t enough quality resumes at this point to push them further down despite having only a single quad 1 win.
Tennessee, Alabama, and Mississippi St. all have 3 or less quad 1 & quad 2 wins combined. They’ll need to take advantage of their remaining opportunities to make significant moves into (or within) the bracket.
Weekend Games:
Arkansas vs TCU (Q2B opportunity)
Florida vs Baylor (Q1A opportunity)
Tennessee at Kansas (Q1A opportunity)
Alabama vs Kansas St. (Q3)
Mississippi St. vs Oklahoma (Neutral, Q1B opportunity)

Pacific Twelve
Locks: Oregon, Colorado
Should be in: Arizona, Stanford, USC
Work to do: Arizona St., Washington

Arizona has a great computer profile. A NET of 9 is fantastic, and they are rated 12th on KenPom. However, they are only 1-3 against quad 1 and 2-2 against quad 2. Without adding some substance, this is still a questionable resume.
Stanford is also in pretty good shape, but 1-3 in Q1 and 2-0 in Q2 leave some room for doubt if they were to struggle down the stretch.
USC already has 3 quad 1 wins, 4 quad 2 wins, but a lower NET of 46 and a quad 3 loss keep this team from being a lock.
Arizona St. is winless against quad 1, so if they can win a few games against the top of the league, it would go a long way for this profile.
Washington is sliding, and may find themselves out of consideration if they cannot turn it around. Losers in 6 of their last 8, and now without the services of PG Quade Green, they’ll need to show the committee they are deserving down the stretch.
Weekend Games:
Arizona at Arizona St. (Q1B opportunity)
Stanford at USC (Q1B opportunity)
USC vs Stanford (Q1B opportunity)
Arizona St. vs Arizona (Q1A opportunity)
Washington at Colorado (Q1A opportunity)

Atlantic Ten
Locks: Dayton
Work to do: VCU, Richmond, Rhode Island, Saint Louis

The A10 is likely to see its bids fluctuate throughout the rest of the season. With 4 teams on my S-curve between positions 47 and 57, we’ll likely see movement in and out of the bracket every week.
The A10 bubble teams will likely either need to perform well against the other bubble teams or beat Dayton.

West Coast
Locks: Gonzaga
Work to do: BYU, Saint Mary’s

BYU and Saint Mary’s are probably safe, but the only way to lock up a bid is going to be to win against Gonzaga.
Weekend Games:
BYU at San Francisco (Q2A opportunity)
Saint Mary’s at Loyola Marymount (Q3)

1	Kansas	Baylor	Seton Hall	San Diego St.
2	Gonzaga	Butler	West Virginia	Duke
3	Dayton	Florida St.	Louisville	Oregon
4	Maryland	Michigan St.	Villanova	Iowa
5	Penn St.	Creighton	Auburn	Colorado
6	Ohio St.	LSU	Indiana	Marquette
7	Houston	Wisconsin	Michigan	Wichita St.
8	Rutgers	Stanford	Kentucky	Illinois
9	BYU	USC	Oklahoma	Minnesota
10	Virginia Tech	Arizona	Arkansas	Florida
11	N.C. State	Texas Tech	Saint Mary’s/Purdue	Memphis/Tennessee
12	East Tennessee St.	Northern Iowa	Liberty	Yale
13	Akron	Stephen F. Austin	North Texas	Vermont
14	Colgate	Oral Roberts	Wright St.	New Mexico St.
15	Georgia St.	Montana	Murray St.	Winthrop
16	Charleston	Monmouth	St. Francis PA/UC Irvine	Prairie View A&M/Norfolk St.

Number 1 Seeds: Kansas, Baylor, Seton Hall, San Diego St.
Lurking: Gonzaga, Butler, West Virginia Duke

Last 4 Byes: Arkansas, Florida, N.C. State, Texas Tech
Last 4 In: Saint Mary’s, Purdue, Memphis, Tennessee
First 4 Out: VCU, Georgetown, Xavier, Richmond
Next 4 Out: DePaul, Rhode Island, Texas, Saint Louis


Multi Bid Conferences:
B1G (12)
SEC (6)
BE (5)
B12 (5)
P12 (5)
ACC (5)
AAC (3)
WCC (3)

Bracket Thoughts:
As suggested previously, the B1G is likely to be a logjam in the high/middle seeds (3-8). With recent updates, I now have no B1G teams on the top 3 seed lines as they continue to beat each other up, but we are back to having 12 B1G teams in the bracket due to good wins by Minnesota and Purdue. I’ve got the top 10 B1G teams on lines 4-8, which shows how important road wins in the league will be in determining seeding order.

If Minnesota and/or Purdue do struggle down the stretch, the BE and A10 have several teams lurking, as they make up 7 of the next 8 teams on my S-curve. This is going to make for some high stakes games down the stretch as these teams jockey for positioning to climb into the bracket in advance of Selection Sunday.

This will be the centralized location for my bracket updates and bracket thoughts. I’ll shoot for an update each day, and then add in some random thoughts as topics arise. A new addition starting the weekend of 1/25-1/26… I’ll be putting together a Bubble Watch that will be updated twice weekly, once before and once after the weekend slate. This will look to provide insight to what games have big implications for tournament selection and also provide a recap of the weekend action and its impact to the bracket.

1	Kansas	Baylor	Set Hall	San Diego St.
2	Gonzaga	West Virginia	Dayton	Duke
3	Butler	Florida St.	Louisville	Michigan St.
4	Oregon	Villanova	Maryland	Iowa
5	Penn St.	Creighton	Auburn	Colorado
6	Wisconsin	LSU	Marquette	Ohio St.
7	Indiana	Houston	Kentucky	Michigan
8	Rutgers	Wichita St.	Stanford	BYU
9	USC	Oklahoma	Illinois	Arizona
10	Arkansas	Minnesota	Florida	Virginia Tech
11	Saint Mary’s	Texas Tech	N.C. State/Memphis	Tennessee/VCU
12	East Tennessee St.	Northern Iowa	Liberty	Akron
13	Yale	Stephen F. Austin	North Texas	Vermont
14	Colgate	Oral Roberts	New Mexico St.	Georgia St.
15	Montana	Wright St.	Winthrop	Murray St.
16	Charleston	St. Francis PA	Monmouth/UC Irvine	Prairie View A&M/Norfolk St.

Number 1 Seeds: Kansas, Baylor, San Diego St. Seton Hall
Lurking: Gonzaga, West Virginia, Duke

Last 4 Byes: Florida, Virginia Tech, Saint Mary’s, Texas Tech
Last 4 In: N.C. State, Memphis, Tennessee, VCU
First 4 Out: Georgetown, Richmond, Xavier, DePaul
Next 4 Out: Purdue, Saint Louis, Arizona St., Texas

Multi Bid Conferences:
B1G (11)
SEC (6)
BE (5)
B12 (5)
P12 (5)
ACC (5)
AAC (3)
WCC (3)
A10 (2)

Bracket Thoughts:
I continue to flip flop the teams on the top line as the NET and efficiency metrics update each day. As I analyze potential scenarios, I like the way it works out today. Kansas has the strongest resume, and Baylor has some separation at #2. I’ll have to revisit if Baylor can sweep KU to win the B12.

The more I look at it, the more mitigating factors I see to put Seton Hall on the top line. There is no shame in the early season losses to Michigan St. and Oregon. Their only 2 other losses came without Sandro Mamukelashvili and at least a without Player of the Year candidate Myles Powell (left at half at Iowa St., DNP at Rutgers). They’ve now reeled off 9 in a row, and holding 6 quad 1 wins is hard to ignore.

The time has finally come. I’ve moved San Diego St. ahead of Gonzaga. They just have a stronger list of accomplishments at every phase:
NET Ranking: SDSU – 1, Zags – 4
Quad 1: SDSU – 4-0; Zags – 4-1
Quad 2: SDSU – 2-0; Zags – 0-0
SOS/NCSOS: SDSU 179/109; Zags 232/282

I give San Diego St. the 1 seed out West, but Gonzaga follows them with the 2 and get to stay close to home in the West Region. I personally think it would be fitting to let these two teams play in the Regional Final for a berth to the Final Four and put these arguments to bed with a head to head result.

Is there any question that the B1G is the best conference this year? 12 teams in the top 46 of the NET (although the top team, Michigan St. is only #10). This conference is stacked and will provide opportunities nearly every night for conference members to improve their profiles. However, we have also seen that they’re going to beat each other up. Michigan and Ohio St., both top 5 teams at one point, are a combined 4-11 in conference. The sheer volume of losses (and the fact that they will play a 20 game schedule) mean the B1G is unlikely to get a great seed, so we’ll likely see the B1G teams crammed in between the 3-9 lines (with the last 1 or two maybe getting double digit seeds).